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Publication year: 2011
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 7 May 2011
Luiz C.M., Miranda , C.A.S., Lima
Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the...
Highlights: ► A new economic boom is forecasted to take place around 2020. ► World leadership is forecasted to change hands by the second quarter of this century. ► Oil, gas and food supply are forecasted to face severe limitations by 2050. ► A new paradigm underlying future world politics should be that of sustainability.
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 7 May 2011
Luiz C.M., Miranda , C.A.S., Lima
Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the...
Highlights: ► A new economic boom is forecasted to take place around 2020. ► World leadership is forecasted to change hands by the second quarter of this century. ► Oil, gas and food supply are forecasted to face severe limitations by 2050. ► A new paradigm underlying future world politics should be that of sustainability.